Number of Workers in Japan Could Drop by 12.85 M. by 2040

January 15, 2019

Tokyo--The number of people with jobs in Japan could decline by 12.85 million from 2017 to 52.45 million in 2040 if the country's economic growth stands at zero pct and labor participation by women and elderly people remains slow, a government estimate showed Tuesday.

In particular, working people is projected to decrease sharply in the 30-59 age group, according to the estimate by the labor ministry's study group on medium- to long-term labor policies.

The decline in the number of workers would serve as a major hindrance to economic growth, the group said.

The number of workers is projected to post the largest decrease, of 2.87 million, in the wholesale and retail industry, which faces severe manpower shortages.

The mining and construction sector, and the manufacturing industry are forecast to see a drop of 2.21 million and 2.06 million, respectively.

By contrast, the number of workers is projected to increase by 1.03 million in the medical and welfare industry, thanks to growing demand for nursing care services amid the country's rapidly aging population.

In case the economy grows and the pace of labor market participation by women and elderly people increases, the total number of people with jobs would come to 60.24 million in 2040, down by a slimmer 5.06 million from 2017, the study group said.

Japan is bound to see the number of workers decline in the long term due to its falling population, but will be able to achieve a certain level of economic growth as advanced artificial intelligence is expected to help improve productivity, according to the group. Jiji Press