Abe likely to dissolve Lower House soon

September 17, 2017

TOKYO- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to dissolve the House of Representatives, the all-important lower chamber of parliament, as early as the beginning of an extraordinary session of parliament likely to be convened on Sept. 28, informed sources said Sunday.

Abe will make a final decision soon after watching the situation surrounding North Korea, which has continued provocative acts, according to the sources in the government and ruling bloc.

He has informed ruling coalition executives of the election plan, the sources said.

The prime minister is believed to have judged that calling an early Lower House election would work to the advantage of the ruling coalition led by his Liberal Democratic Party in view of a recovery of public approval ratings for his cabinet and confusion in the main opposition Democratic Party.

Under likely scenarios, the election will be held on Oct. 22 or Oct. 29, with the official campaign period starting on Oct. 10 or Oct. 17, according to the sources.

In either case, the Oct. 22 by-elections in the No. 4 constituency of Aomori Prefecture, the No. 5 constituency of Niigata Prefecture and the No. 3 constituency of Aichi Prefecture will be called off and absorbed in the general election.

A Lower House election needs to be held by December 2018.

Abe held talks with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso on Sunday. He met separately with LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai and Natsuo Yamaguchi, chief of Komeito, the coalition partner of the LDP, on Monday, and had another meeting with Nikai on Friday.

At the meetings, the prime minister informed them of his plan for a Lower House dissolution, according to the sources.

He is very likely to dissolve the Lower House at the beginning of the extra session of parliament, an LDP executive said.

A Lower House election is likely to be set for October, with a visit to Japan by U.S. President Donald Trump, his first since taking office, being arranged for early November, the sources said.

Abe may hold talks with Komeito leader Yamaguchi again before leaving for New York on Monday to attend the U.N. General Assembly session.

The LDP and Komeito are expected to hold a meeting of senior officials, including the secretaries-general and election campaign managers, on Monday to discuss election strategies.

Soka Gakkai, the lay Buddhist organization that backs Komeito, will hold an emergency meeting of local chapter leaders later on Sunday.

The DP, the Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party canceled a meeting of their leaders planned for Sunday to discuss their approach to the extra parliamentary session and cooperation for the next Lower House election.

Abe initially hoped to win a third three-year term as LDP president in the party leadership race in autumn 2018 and capitalize on the victory to call a Lower House election.

He also looked at holding a Lower House election and a national referendum on constitutional amendments on the same day by making use of the two-thirds majority held by lawmakers in support of rewriting the national charter in both chambers of parliament. Any proposal to revise the constitution needs to be supported by two-thirds of each chamber's members before it is put to a public vote.

Abe changed course, however, as he is expected to be grilled by opposition parties over scandals in the coming extra session of parliament and his cabinet approval ratings may take a hit again, according to the sources.

The scandals include cronyism allegations against Abe over a university veterinary department plan by a school operator headed by a friend of his and the sale of state-owned land at a steep discount to a separate school operator once linked to Abe's wife.

The prime minister also took into consideration a series of defections from the DP and the lack of adequate preparation for an early election by forces close to popular Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike who are busy planning to set up a national political party.

But he is likely to face objection to causing a political vacuum in the midst of geopolitical tension over North Korea, which conducted its sixth nuclear test on Sept. 3 and fired a ballistic missile over Japan on Friday, the second of its kind in less than weeks.

In addition, he may be accused of maneuvering for party interests by calling a general election before his current cabinet, billed as results-oriented, has achieved little in economic areas since it was created in a reshuffle in August. Jiji Press