Curbing seat losses for LDP key to Abe’s longevity

October 15, 2017

Tokyo- When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last month called an election for the House of Representatives, he seemed to believe that he had a good chance of extending his tenure of nearly five years despite the likely loss of some seats by his Liberal Democratic Party.

Following the subsequent rapid realignment of opposition forces sparked by popular Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike's surprise decision to head a new national political party, however, the main focus of the Oct. 22 general election is whether Abe's power will be weakened by fresh competition from two upstart parties, including Koike's conservative party, the Party of Hope.

Before election campaigning began on Tuesday, the LDP held 290 seats in the 475-seat all-important lower chamber of parliament.

Public approval ratings for the Abe cabinet have fallen below disapproval levels in most opinion polls. A series of scandals, including extramarital affairs, has raised questions about the qualifications of many LDP "sophomores," who rode Abe's coattails to win seats for the first time in the December 2012 election, when the LDP regained power, and were reelected in the December 2014 race.

In view of these factors, the LDP's strength in the Lower House appears likely to be reduced in the coming election. How far the party can limit the loss of seats will be watched closely.

At a news conference in late September to announce his decision to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election, Abe set the victory-or-defeat bar for the election at a combined majority of 233 seats for the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito. Abe said he would resign if the coalition falls short of a majority.

The number of Lower House seats will be cut by 10 to 465, the smallest since the end of World War II, to narrow the disparities in the weight of votes.

Last Tuesday, Abe said on a television program that if the ruling bloc secures a combined majority, "LDP members should steer clear of infighting as (such a majority suggests that) the public wants stability."

But a combined majority for the LDP and Komeito seems a low threshold, as it means that the LDP could lose as many as 92 seats, provided that Komeito, known for its solid support base backed by lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, maintains its strength of 35 seats at the time of the Lower House dissolution.

Some LDP members believe that if the ruling coalition ends up barely clearing a combined majority, the prime minister would have to step down. "He can't get away with about 90 of his party colleagues failing to be elected," a senior party official said.

Benchmarks for success for the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition include a so-called stable majority of 244 seats, down 81 seats from their pre-election strength of 325 seats, and an absolute stable majority of 261 seats, down 64.

With 244 seats, the coalition can take the chairmanship of all 17 standing committees in the Lower House and half of seats in each of the committees. Furthermore, 266 seats would give the partners a monopoly on 17 committee leadership posts as well as a majority of seats in all of the committees, ensuring rock-solid management of parliamentary affairs.

"If we win an absolute stable majority, we can push back any calls (for Abe) to take responsibility (for the loss of seats)," said a senior official of the LDP faction led by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda, from which Abe hails.

Against Abe's low target, some within the LDP said the win-or-loss line should be a single-handed majority for the LDP. To meet this goal, the party needs to avoid losing more than 57 seats.

"If we fall short of a majority on our own, the advisability of the prime minister's decision to dissolve (the Lower House) would come under critical scrutiny," a veteran LDP member said.

Attempts to oust Abe from office might gather momentum in the run-up to the LDP leadership election in the autumn of 2018, when Abe will aim to win a third three-year term as LDP president. Jiji Press