Global Warming May Hit 1.5-Degree Threshold as Early as 2030

October 9, 2018

Tokyo- The world's average temperature is likely to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels between 2030 and 2052 if global warming progresses at the current pace, the U.N. climate panel said Monday.

To keep global warming under the key threshold of 1.5 degrees, it is necessary to lower global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide to a level 45 pct below the 2010 level by 2030 and attain net zero emissions by around 2050, said a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The 2015 Paris climate agreement, which entered into force in 2016, calls for limiting the average world temperature rise to less than 2 degrees from the preindustrial levels and for efforts to keep the increase to less than 1.5 degrees.

The IPCC, the United Nations' top climate panel, adopted the report at a meeting in Incheon, South Korea, to paint a picture of what could happen to Earth with global warming of 1.5 degrees.

The world temperature has already risen by around one degree from preindustrial levels and is forecast to rise by 0.2 degree every decade if the current pace of global warming continues, the report said.

Global warming of 2 degrees would heighten the risk of torrential rains and tropical storms in East Asia and North America more than a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees would, according to the report.

Sea levels are seen rising 26-77 centimeters around the world by 2100 with global warming of 1.5 degrees. But the rise would be 10 centimeters smaller than with global warming of 2 degrees, and the number of people affected by higher sea levels would be 10 million lower at most.

Coral reefs would decrease by 70-90 pct with global warming of 1.5 degrees, while virtually all reefs would be lost with a 2.0-degree rise, the report warned.

To prevent global warming from crossing the 1.5-degree threshold, the world should raise the share of renewable energy in all power sources to 70-85 pct by 2050, the IPCC proposed.

The panel also called for stopping the use of coal-fired power plants and utilizing CO2 collection and storage technologies.

Delayed action to reduce emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases would push up costs to stop global warming, the panel also said.

In December this year, rules to implement the Paris agreement are expected be set at the 24th session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP24.

Following the release of the IPCC report, island countries, hit hard by higher sea levels, are seen requesting more effective measures to fight global warming. Jiji Press