INTERVIEW: N. Korea Eyeing Deal on Nuke Control, Not Abolishment

June 2, 2018

Washington- With last-minute efforts under way to realize the June 12 U.S.-North Korea summit, Michael Green, a former U.S. government expert on Asia, believes North Korea is aiming to win a deal on the management, not the scrapping, of its nuclear weapons.

Pyongyang's 2 Clear Goals

"(North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un is coming into this summit, I believe, with two very clear goals, strategically," the former U.S. National Security Council director for Asian affairs and prominent Japan expert said in an interview with Jiji Press on Wednesday.

North Korea wants to get U.S. President Donald Trump "to de facto implicitly acknowledge North Korea's nuclear weapons status," Green said.

"The North Koreans, in other words, want from this summit the president of the United States to meet with Kim Jong Un to talk about nuclear arms control."

At the possible summit, Trump and Kim are due to discuss North Korea's denuclearization. But Green warned, "When they (North Koreans) say denuclearization, they don't mean real denuclearization. ... They want to make an agreement on how North Korea manages its nuclear weapons. Not gives up nuclear weapons, but manages."

Pyongyang also aims to weaken international sanctions imposed for its nuclear and missile development, according to Green, who served on the NSC staff under President George W. Bush.

He characterized China, which accounts for 90 pct of North Korea's trade, as the "most important link" with regard to this goal. "Even if the U.S. and Japan don't relax sanctions, if China backs away, that's a huge victory for North Korea."

"Already we have reports that Chinese ships are helping fuel North Korean ships with oil in violation of the (U.N.) Security Council sanctions, or that China is not cracking down as much on exports to North Korea," he maintained.

Trump's Aim

Green is doubtful that Trump has clear goals in the summit.

Referring to the open letter from Trump to Kim, released last week, on the cancellation of the summit, Green said, "I noticed that there was nothing in it about denuclearization or concrete issues. I think that reveals that the president is much more interested in the...atmosphere than the actual substance."

"The president clearly approaches this summit with Kim Jong Un not as a diplomat or as a statesman, but like a reality TV show," said Green.

He added that it seems Trump "is not very precise about denuclearization" and "keeps shifting what he says about the actual process of denuclearization."

"It's not clear whether the president cares or not about that actual verification and denuclearization process. He seems much more focused on...the atmosphere, the headline."

If the summit comes true, the two leaders "will probably make some vague agreements centering on peace treaty and denuclearization. North Korea might make some symbolic gestures, but not real CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization)," Green predicted.

"As the U.S. government tries to get North Korea to agree to concrete steps towards denuclearization (after vague agreements at the summit), we will probably find North Korea is not willing to do it. And so we'll just have a delayed, slow process with no real result."

"In the meantime, North Korea will have weaker sanctions and credit. And eventually I think North Korea will go back to (nuclear) testing again. I think that's the most likely scenario."

Japan's Role

Japan now appears to be outside the core of ongoing diplomacy on North Korea, but its role is "critical," Green said.

"I think Japan is realistic about North Korea, the most realistic. Much more realistic than South Korea or the current occupant of the White House."

"Even though Japan was not technically, formally a participant in the Korean War, Japan has to be part of the peace mechanism that results if the president is successful in his summit."

Discussing the risks facing Japan, Green said Trump may agree to relax pressure on North Korea even if the authoritarian nation does not agree to freeze its testing of missiles that can reach Japan but only accepts a halt to tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe "will have to continually remind President Trump, 'Don't forget about medium-range and shorter-range missiles,'" Green said.

Green also pointed to the risk that Trump might decide to withdraw U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula if he thinks to conclude a peace treaty with North Korea.

"There has been some strong hint that President Trump would like to pull troops off of the Korean Peninsula," he said. "The Japanese government has to watch that carefully, and the U.S. Congress has to watch that carefully, because Donald Trump for 40 years has said South Korea should pay for everything itself."

A positive possibility for Japan, Green said, is that Kim could "make some progress on (Japanese) abductees (in North Korea) in order to keep Trump happy, in order to keep the summit going."

"Japan has a lot riding on this summit. A lot. And it's a good thing that President Trump likes Abe-san, and it's a good thing Abe-san gets to see President Trump June 7." Jiji Press