Nankai Trough Quake Could Cause 1,240 T. Yen of Economic Losses

June 7, 2018

Tokyo- A possible huge earthquake in the Nankai Trough off Japan's western and central Pacific coast is estimated to cause up to 1,240 trillion yen of economic losses over two decades, the Japan Society of Civil Engineers said Thursday.

The academic society made the estimate for the disaster's long-term impact, including through damage to production facilities and traffic networks, on top of the Cabinet Office's assessment released in 2013 that the earthquake and ensuing tsunami could cause up to 170 trillion yen of direct damage to buildings, factories and other assets.

Meanwhile, the group put 20-year economic damage from a massive earthquake just beneath Tokyo at 731 trillion yen at the largest, besides up to 47 trillion yen of immediate physical damage, projected by the government agency.

Total tax revenues for the central and local governments are estimated to fall 131 trillion yen for 20 years after the Nankai Trough quake, and to drop 77 trillion yen for the same period after the beneath-the-capital temblor.

The civil engineering society's estimates are included in its report on measures against major disasters. The 20-year time span was adopted because such a long time was needed for economic recovery following the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake in western Japan.

According to the report, measures totaling 38 trillion yen or more to improve and reinforce public infrastructure including roads, levees and ports are expected to reduce 20-year economic damage from the Nankai Trough quake by 509 trillion yen.

Similar measures totaling 10 trillion yen or more are estimated to curb long-term damage from the Tokyo quake by 247 trillion yen.

"Countermeasures should be taken in at least some 15 years, before the possible earthquakes hit," Kyoto University Prof. Satoshi Fujii, involved in drawing up the report, told a press conference on Thursday.

"We'll advise the government to compile a long-term plan" to implement disaster reduction measures, Fujii said. Jiji Press