Population deen declining in all prefectures after 2030

March 31, 2018

Tokyo- All of Japan's 47 prefectures are predicted to face declining populations after 2030, a welfare ministry think tank said Friday.

The populations of Tokyo and Okinawa Prefecture are expected to start falling after peaking in 2030, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research said.

In 2045, 46 prefectures, excluding Tokyo, are predicted to have populations below those of 2015.

As the birthrate has improved in recent years, population declines in all 47 prefectures are seen coming 10 years later than the earlier estimate made in 2013.

The latest estimate, based on the 2015 census, put the entire population of Japan at 106,421,000 in 2045, down 16.3 percent from 2015. The proportion of people aged 65 and up is expected to top 30 percent in all 47 prefectures.

By prefecture, Akita is expected to have the largest percentage decline in population in 2045, compared with 2015, with a 41.2 percent drop, followed by Aomori with 37 percent, Yamagata and Kochi with 31.6 percent and Fukushima with 31.3 percent.

Akita also had the largest estimated proportion of people aged 65 or over in 2045, with 50.1 percent of the total, followed by Aomori, with 46.8 percent, Fukushima, with 44.2 percent, and Iwate, with 43.2 percent.

Young people in such northeastern prefectures tend to refrain from returning to their hometowns after moving to urban areas for schools and work.

By municipality, the village of Kawakami in Nara Prefecture had the largest estimated population decrease in 2045, with 79.4 percent, followed by the city of Utashinai in Hokkaido, with 77.3 percent, and the village of Nanmoku in Gunma Prefecture, with 77 percent.

The top three municipalities with the highest forecast population increases were all wards in Tokyo. Chuo topped the list, with 34.9 percent, followed by Minato, with 34.4 percent, and Chiyoda, with 32.8 percent. Jiji Press