China rise not enough to reduce US dominance in Asia: expert

October 2, 2018

China's rise as a economic and military power may lead into a new regional order in Asia, but it is not enough to reduce the United States' power in the region in the near future, a Japanese academic said.

Speaking during a symposium commemorating the 41st founding anniversary of Fukuda “Heart-To-Heart” Doctrine on Monday, Professor Mie Oba of the Tokyo University of Science sounded the alarm bells on challenges to peace and prosperity in the Southeast Asia.

Oba said one of the challenges facing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Japan is the “seismic shift in the balance of power” with the rise of China as dominant power in the region.

“The rise of China has had big impact on regional circumstances,” Oba said. He added that “this country first achieved large-scale economic development and now, it is mobilizing that expanding power to promote the further build up and modernization of its military.”

Oba added China is pursuing a two-pronged, pro-active foreign policy by asserting its sovereignty in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, then by demonstrating a regional vision as found in its Belt and Road Initiative.

“This kind of idea and the leadership it promotes could lead to the construction of a new regional order in Asia,” the Japanese professor stressed.

While the leverage of the US is declining, Oba said she does not believe that “there will be an easy transition of power from the United to China in the near future.

She cited the US continuing efforts to keep its commitment to Asia affairs alive by launching its Indo-Pacific Strategy to support infrastructure development and financial assistance for security cooperation.

“With tactics such as these, I do not think that the United States is working to hold onto its hegemonic power in Asia and the world. However, the current administration’s “America First” policy has obviously had a negative effect on Asian countries’ trust towards the United States,” she said, adding that “from a long term perspective, its hegemonic power is on the decline relative to the rapid rise of China.”

Oba warned that the changes in the balance of power and the decline of the international liberal order “have shaken the solidarity and resilience of ASEAN.

"The weakness of ASEAN will lead to the collapse of its centrality, which will have a strongly negative impact on peace and prosperity in East Asia and the Asia Pacific. So, ASEAN-Japan cooperation should aim at the enhancement of ASEAN solidarity, resilience and integration,” she said. DMS