COVID-19 cases in NCR may hit 400,000 if no intervention done: DOH

December 17, 2020

If there will be no intervention during the holiday season, the Department of Health (DOH) on Thursday said cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may reach up to 4,000 per day.

In a press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Singh-Vergeire said continuous growth of cases was seen in different areas, including the NCR, signaling the start of a surge.

“If not mitigated, (it) will lead to a sharp spike of cases during and after the holiday season,” she added.

Vergeire said the initial projections from the OCTA Research and the department’s FASSSTER ( Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance Using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler For Early Detection of Diseases) confirm the high likelihood of a surge during and after the holidays without intervention.

“Cases in NCR may reach upward of 4,000 per day which ay overwhelm our health system capacity to upwards of 80 percent utilization by end of January if we do not act aggressively to halt transmission,” she said.

She said health system capacity of the country is usually weaker in January due to transitions, end-of-contracts or non-renewal of job orders, and more consults and admission for non-communicable diseases like hypertension and diabetes.

The health official said post-holiday in Canada and the United States has increased the number of their COVID-19 cases after people did not follow the government’s protocol.

“The likelihood of this surge in the Philippines in the coming Holidays is very likely and we should take this threat seriously and act immediately to avoid this from happening,” she said.

She said crowding is taking place in retail, recreation, groceries, pharmacies, transit station, parks and work places.

Vergeire said the number of new cases and overall burden in its population are highest in NCR, Cordillera Autonomous Region (CAR), Calabarzon and Davao region.

“For NCR, more than half of cities have been showing increase in cases while the remaining half has shown slowing of improvement,” she said.

“Increased vigilance is necessary across all NCR LGUs (local government units) give its proximity to each other increases transmission risk,” she added.

Vergeire did not mention which city showed increase in the transmission of COVID-19 cases.

“We do not rank the cities when we are making an analysis especially in the National Capital Region because we know the proximities of all these areas with each other,” she said.

She said insufficient compliance in wearing face shields has contributed to the increased in the transmission of virus.

She said only 31 percent were compliant in wearing face shield.

“We highlight that both face masks and face shields need to be worn together and compliance to use of face shields needs to be increase,” she added.

DOH appealed to the public to strictly follow the minimum public health standards, such as wearing face masks and face shields, practice physical distancing, and frequently sanitizing hands.

They also asked the public to avoid activities in closed settings, crowded areas, poor ventilation places, and also having close conversations and singing near other people.

As of December 17,the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country  is now at 454,447 with 1, 470 new cases recorded in Quezon City, Rizal, Makati City, Davao City, and Quezon.

Recoveries are at 419,902 while 8,850 patients have died due to COVID-19. Ella Dionisio/DMS