The Daily Manila Shimbun

 

UP economist sees Q3 GDP to shrink double-digit

August 10, 2020



The Philippine economy is likely to contract again by double digits in the third quarter of this year, an economist from the University of the Philippines said on Monday.

In a media forum, Ramon Clarete, former dean of the UP School of Economics, noted that the third quarter started with the imposition of modified enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila and four nearby provinces.

Under MECQ, many industries are not operating and movement of people have been restricted.

"I think double-digit negative, similar to second quarter," Clarete said in his projection for the August to October gross domestic product.

The economy shrank by 16.5 percent in the second quarter mainly due to the lockdown imposed by the government in most parts of the country to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease.

"We're starting that (third quarter) with MECQ, so we have already been hit. And I can't see any reversal yet of that move of the growth rate of the Philippines," he said, citing the continuous rise of coronavirus cases in the country.

Clarete expressed belief that the health sector might again call President Rodrigo Duterte to continue with the quarantine protocols.

"Eventually our health authorities will have to relay, persuade the President to continue the quarantine. So, that one will have a toll on economic growth," Clarete added.

Duterte reimposed MECQ in Metro Manila and in nearby provinces of Bulacan, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal following the call of the medical societies to give them a break for two weeks after hospitals were overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases.

The average GDP rate was at -9 percent during the first half of the year.

Clarete said the average 6 percent GDP growth rate during the Aquino administration and early years of the Duterte administration has been wiped out by the coronavirus disease pandemic in just six months. Celerina Monte/DMS